Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -130 SOU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +2 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -0.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.1 (+0.1) | 142.3 (+19.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.5 (-2.5) | 139.7 (+22.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -1.1 (-3.1) | 140.1 (+21.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.4 (-2.4) | 141.4 (+20.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#336) | -4.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#330) | -0.14 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.86 (#336) | -0.44 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.323 (#347) | 0.489 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.6% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.4% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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