Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -300 L-MD +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -13.8 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -6.9 (-11.9) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -10.1 (-15.1) | 140.9 (+4.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -11.3 (-16.3) | 140.1 (+4.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -11.3 (-16.3) | 141.4 (+3.6) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2025 | FAIR 85 – 82 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#130) | -4.8 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#153) | -1.83 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#160) | -3.15 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#146) | 0.352 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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