Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -260 L-MD +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -15.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -8.4 (-5.4) | 139.0 (+28.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -9.8 (-6.8) | 134.1 (+32.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -10.6 (-7.6) | 133.3 (+33.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -11.4 (-8.4) | 136.4 (+30.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2021 | L-MD 75 – 70 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#106) | -3.5 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#27) | -1.61 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#22) | -2.26 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#61) | 0.365 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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