Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +10 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | PRIN -21.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -15.4 (-5.4) | 147.0 (+21.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -15.1 (-5.1) | 142.9 (+25.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -16.5 (-6.5) | 144.0 (+24.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -17.5 (-7.5) | 145.2 (+22.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRIN | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-7 | 4-22 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 3-8 |
| Away | 8-4 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#77) | -9.1 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#58) | -1.80 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#59) | -2.94 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#21) | 0.417 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRIN | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 33.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 38.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 34.3% |
Game Analysis
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