Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | FGCU -400 SELA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +19 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -11.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -8.3 (+10.7) | 143.8 (+17.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -7.8 (+11.2) | 141.6 (+19.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -8.6 (+10.4) | 141.7 (+19.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -8.0 (+11.0) | 140.7 (+20.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#187) | -6.0 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#144) | -2.42 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#140) | -3.46 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#67) | 0.257 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 22.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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