Florida Gulf Coast
Eagles
85
–
78
FINAL
Hilton Garden Inn FGCU Invitational
Purdue Fort Wayne
Mastodons
Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -7.0 Push |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU -320 PFW +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -11.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -7.7 (-0.7) | 141.0 (+22.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -8.4 (-1.4) | 146.1 (+16.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -8.9 (-1.9) | 147.4 (+15.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -8.1 (-1.1) | 143.1 (+19.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#187) | -6.0 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#144) | 0.11 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#140) | -0.19 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#67) | 0.465 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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