Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -10.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -6.3 (-8.3) | 143.4 (-19.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -6.8 (-8.8) | 144.7 (-20.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -6.7 (-8.7) | 146.3 (-22.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -7.2 (-9.2) | 145.7 (-21.7) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 10-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 61.2 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#43) | -1.4 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#21) | -0.59 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#24) | -1.33 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#14) | 0.479 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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