Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | CCSU +320 FOR -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +6 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -7.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+38.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -8.1 (+2.1) | 136.4 (+35.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -5.9 (-0.1) | 138.6 (+33.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -6.6 (+0.6) | 139.2 (+32.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -8.2 (+2.2) | 139.0 (+33.0) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2023 | CCSU 82 – 80 FOR |
| Dec 11, 2022 | FOR 90 – 77 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#349) | 1.0 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#306) | -0.23 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.61 (#331) | -0.09 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#310) | 0.450 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 28.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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