Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -550 CCSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +2 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -7.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -8.9 (-10.9) | 136.5 (+25.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -5.9 (-7.9) | 134.7 (+27.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -5.9 (-7.9) | 135.7 (+26.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -6.3 (-8.3) | 136.6 (+25.4) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | FOR 90 – 77 CCSU |
| Nov 28, 2021 | FOR 89 – 83 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-3 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#203) | -4.4 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#249) | -1.22 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#251) | -1.63 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#253) | 0.439 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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