Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USU -26.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -22.3 (-3.3) | 146.5 (-5.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -19.4 (-0.4) | 144.6 (-3.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -22.2 (-3.2) | 144.3 (-3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -23.2 (-4.2) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#45) | -11.3 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#37) | -2.97 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#33) | -4.54 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#23) | 0.312 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 29.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 59.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 37.4% |
Game Analysis
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