Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +32 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -13.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -8.5 (+23.5) | 154.4 (+5.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.0 (+21.0) | 154.7 (+5.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -8.9 (+23.1) | 154.7 (+5.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -8.8 (+23.2) | 153.4 (+6.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#23) | -0.6 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#30) | -0.86 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#44) | -1.98 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.730 (#3) | 0.455 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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