Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -550 AMER +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -13.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -8.3 (+0.7) | 142.1 (+24.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -7.7 (+1.3) | 143.4 (+23.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -8.6 (+0.4) | 143.3 (+23.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -7.5 (+1.5) | 143.2 (+23.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 1-16 | 5-13 |
| Home | 3-11 | 6-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#263) | -11.4 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#326) | -1.21 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#317) | -1.86 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#274) | 0.363 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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