Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | WASH -240 WIN +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | WASH -4.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -2.1 (-10.1) | 153.3 (+2.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -4.8 (-12.8) | 154.1 (+1.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -4.9 (-12.9) | 153.9 (+2.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -6.4 (-14.4) | 153.7 (+2.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#192) | 1.3 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#176) | -0.64 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#178) | -1.38 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#208) | 0.515 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 42.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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