Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -13.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -11.3 (+7.3) | 147.7 (-7.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.7 (+3.7) | 148.7 (-8.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -7.7 (+3.7) | 150.3 (-10.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -7.4 (+3.4) | 148.7 (-8.7) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | SFA 69 – 67 NWST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SFA 74 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SFA 70 – 68 NWST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NWST 57 – 54 SFA |
| Nov 14, 2023 | SFA 96 – 70 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -18.9 (#358) | 0.8 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#336) | 0.05 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.90 (#337) | -0.66 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#336) | 0.607 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 12.0% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 39.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.