Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -29.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +46 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -35.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -27.8 (+18.2) | 148.7 (+15.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -24.8 (+21.2) | 145.7 (+18.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -30.6 (+15.4) | 144.1 (+19.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -33.0 (+13.0) | 147.3 (+16.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 6-14 |
| Home | 17-0 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.0 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 22.4 (#2) | -6.0 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#6) | -0.21 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.89 (#15) | -0.48 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.720 (#4) | 0.540 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 24.7% |
| REB / G | 45.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.2% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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