Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -6.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -2.4 (+1.4) | 137.9 (+11.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.8 (-0.2) | 143.0 (+6.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -1.6 (+0.6) | 144.0 (+5.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -1.4 (+0.4) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#71) | 18.5 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#87) | 1.77 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#63) | 2.82 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#111) | 0.516 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 2.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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