Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -7.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -9.1 (-20.1) | 141.7 (-12.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -6.3 (-17.3) | 143.0 (-14.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -5.6 (-16.6) | 143.1 (-14.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -6.4 (-17.4) | 140.9 (-11.9) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 8-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#76) | 4.7 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#128) | 0.22 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#110) | -0.02 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#99) | 0.507 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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