Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -17.0 Push |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +17 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -7.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -8.9 (+8.1) | 136.7 (-17.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -6.9 (+10.1) | 138.0 (-19.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -6.9 (+10.1) | 137.8 (-18.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -7.6 (+9.4) | 136.0 (-17.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#136) | 0.8 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#140) | 1.06 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#153) | 0.79 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#93) | 0.517 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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