Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -25.4 (-33.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -22.8 (-30.8) | 137.3 (-5.3) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -20.7 (-28.7) | 138.0 (-6.0) | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -22.7 (-30.7) | 137.5 (-5.5) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -23.8 (-31.8) | 137.3 (-5.3) | 90% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 7-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#37) | -9.8 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#190) | -2.53 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#203) | -3.49 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#176) | 0.378 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 28.0% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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