Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +15 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | BC -13.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 108.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -9.3 (+5.7) | 123.8 (-10.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -9.0 (+6.0) | 126.5 (-13.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -9.6 (+5.4) | 125.9 (-12.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -9.2 (+5.8) | 126.1 (-13.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#110) | -3.2 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#185) | -0.98 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#169) | -1.36 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#171) | 0.401 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 11.9% |
Game Analysis
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