Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +41 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -39.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -28.6 (+12.4) | 137.9 (+19.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -25.8 (+15.2) | 139.7 (+17.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -36.4 (+4.6) | 139.5 (+17.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -35.0 (+6.0) | 135.1 (+21.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#10) | -17.6 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#73) | -3.27 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#52) | -4.85 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#14) | 0.360 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 10.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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