Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +10 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | NE -7.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -4.3 (+5.7) | 131.0 (-9.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -6.3 (+3.7) | 132.8 (-10.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -5.8 (+4.2) | 133.6 (-11.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -6.9 (+3.1) | 130.6 (-8.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 9-1 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-15 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#174) | -1.2 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#162) | -1.29 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#175) | -1.69 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#157) | 0.481 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 20.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 62.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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