Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +1 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | MINN -9.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -6.1 (+5.1) | 130.1 (-23.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -7.1 (+6.1) | 133.0 (-26.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -7.4 (+6.4) | 131.8 (-24.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -8.4 (+7.4) | 132.1 (-25.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-11 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 69.2 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#309) | 7.7 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#282) | 3.04 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#286) | 4.46 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#246) | 0.668 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 4.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 14.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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