Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +7 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | CIT -2.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.7 (+6.3) | 151.3 (-28.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.3 (+6.7) | 146.0 (-23.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -0.9 (+7.9) | 146.5 (-23.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.1 (+5.9) | 149.1 (-26.1) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#272) | 3.6 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#133) | 0.92 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#93) | 1.20 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#169) | 0.571 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.6% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 9.9% |
| DRB% | 53.0% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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