Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -4.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -2.7 (+1.3) | 146.4 (+3.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -5.5 (-1.5) | 150.6 (-0.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -5.5 (-1.5) | 150.9 (-0.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -4.4 (-0.4) | 151.1 (-1.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#60) | 8.8 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#107) | 0.58 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#111) | 1.00 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#196) | 0.487 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 2.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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