Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +9 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -12.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -4.9 (+4.1) | 137.8 (-24.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -8.0 (+1.0) | 142.9 (-29.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -8.4 (+0.6) | 141.7 (-28.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -8.3 (+0.7) | 140.0 (-27.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#239) | -9.2 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#136) | 0.06 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#142) | -0.44 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#150) | 0.488 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 37.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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