Betting Lines
| Spread | STBK -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +23 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -14.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STBK -8.6 (+14.4) | 148.4 (-11.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -11.0 (+12.0) | 147.8 (-10.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STBK -11.5 (+11.5) | 148.5 (-11.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -10.9 (+12.1) | 148.5 (-11.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#242) | -11.1 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#169) | -1.59 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#179) | -2.47 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#228) | 0.359 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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