Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -5.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -1.4 (+6.4) | 153.2 (-16.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.5 (+7.5) | 150.5 (-13.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -1.5 (+6.5) | 156.9 (-19.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -1.9 (+6.9) | 153.0 (-16.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | DUKE 81 – 72 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#51) | 19.6 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#35) | 4.11 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#29) | 6.50 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#27) | 0.751 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 2.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 12.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 7.9% |
Game Analysis
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