Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +7 | 195 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -12.3 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+42.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -10.9 (-17.9) | 151.9 (+43.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -9.6 (-16.6) | 150.9 (+44.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -10.1 (-17.1) | 152.0 (+43.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -9.4 (-16.4) | 151.5 (+43.5) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2025 | NMSU 76 – 68 UNM |
| Dec 8, 2024 | NMSU 89 – 83 UNM |
| Dec 16, 2023 | UNM 73 – 72 NMSU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | UNM 106 – 62 NMSU |
| Dec 7, 2021 | NMSU 78 – 76 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 10-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#101) | -1.8 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#30) | -0.51 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#38) | -1.05 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.695 (#7) | 0.495 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.