Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +9 | 189 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -21.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -15.6 (-6.6) | 156.9 (+32.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -17.1 (-8.1) | 159.1 (+29.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -20.4 (-11.4) | 158.9 (+30.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -18.3 (-9.3) | 158.3 (+30.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-0 | 5-4 |
| Away | 10-3 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#45) | -7.2 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#86) | -1.85 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#105) | -2.25 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#49) | 0.498 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 57.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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