Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +24 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -10.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -11.7 (+12.3) | 136.1 (-10.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -8.2 (+15.8) | 137.8 (-11.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -8.3 (+15.7) | 137.5 (-11.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -8.9 (+15.1) | 139.8 (-13.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#183) | -4.5 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#221) | -1.57 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#234) | -2.14 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#268) | 0.395 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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