Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +4 | 204 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -9.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+53.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -8.7 (-4.7) | 149.4 (+54.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -7.0 (-3.0) | 148.2 (+55.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -7.5 (-3.5) | 150.8 (+53.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -8.0 (-4.0) | 152.2 (+51.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 4-16 |
| Home | 7-10 | 7-12 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#138) | -1.6 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#106) | -0.26 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#115) | -0.03 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#136) | 0.441 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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