Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | OU -1.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -1.8 (+5.2) | 132.8 (+8.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -2.6 (+4.4) | 131.9 (+9.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -3.5 (+3.5) | 131.4 (+9.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -2.3 (+4.7) | 132.8 (+8.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | FLA 96 – 79 OU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | FLA 85 – 63 OU |
| Dec 21, 2022 | OU 62 – 53 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#40) | 13.6 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#28) | 3.68 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#38) | 5.79 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#64) | 0.646 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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