He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Lloyd Noble Center · December 2, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread OU -1.0 Home covered
O/U 133.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total OU win
Actual OU +7 141 Won
Massey OU -1.4 (+5.6)
Massey Totals 127.1 (+13.9)
Bradley-Terry 47%
Weighted B-T 23%
Efficiency Plus ML OU -1.8 (+5.2) 132.8 (+8.2) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML OU -2.6 (+4.4) 131.9 (+9.1) 54%
Baseline ML OU -3.5 (+3.5) 131.4 (+9.6) 69%
Baseline Plus ML OU -2.3 (+4.7) 132.8 (+8.2) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 14, 2026 FLA 9679 OU
Feb 19, 2025 FLA 8563 OU
Dec 21, 2022 OU 6253 FLA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings OU FLA
Overall 19-16 20-14
Conference 7-11 9-9
Home 12-6 13-5
Away 3-8 4-7
Neutral 4-2 3-2
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.1 70.6
Avg Pts Against 65.0 66.5
Massey 8.9 (#40) 13.6 (#23)
Bradley-Terry 2.26 (#28) 3.68 (#5)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.05 (#38) 5.79 (#6)
RPI 0.593 (#64) 0.646 (#15)
Shooting & Four Factors OU FLA
FG% 50.1% 43.4%
3PT% 33.9% 34.4%
REB / G 35.7 39.2
OREB / G 8.0 13.2
AST / TO 1.27 1.07
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.2% 50.6%
TOV% 19.0% 17.9%
ORB% 25.6% 35.3%
FT Rate 18.0% 26.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.7% 42.7%
Opp TOV% 22.1% 24.6%
DRB% 79.2% 73.6%
Opp FT Rate 17.0% 20.6%

Game Analysis

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