Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -1800 OU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +22 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -15.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -13.9 (+8.1) | 155.2 (-7.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -13.5 (+8.5) | 153.8 (-5.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -13.5 (+8.5) | 153.7 (-5.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -15.0 (+7.0) | 152.7 (-4.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | FLA 96 – 79 OU |
| Dec 21, 2022 | OU 62 – 53 FLA |
| Dec 2, 2021 | OU 74 – 67 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W12 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 23.0 (#4) | 11.2 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.31 (#2) | 2.49 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.70 (#2) | 3.11 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#4) | 0.560 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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