Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | OU +260 FLA -325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +17 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -6.2 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -1.9 (-15.1) | 153.8 (+21.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.6 (-14.4) | 150.6 (+24.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.4 (-14.6) | 151.1 (+23.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -4.1 (-12.9) | 152.9 (+22.1) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2025 | FLA 85 – 63 OU |
| Dec 21, 2022 | OU 62 – 53 FLA |
| Dec 2, 2021 | OU 74 – 67 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 87.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#62) | 19.5 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#46) | 2.55 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#54) | 4.06 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#102) | 0.615 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 46.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 43.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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