Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | MTSU -600 UTM +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -19.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -14.3 (-2.3) | 140.0 (-6.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -14.2 (-2.2) | 140.0 (-6.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -15.2 (-3.2) | 140.1 (-6.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -16.0 (-4.0) | 140.9 (-6.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2021 | MTSU 84 – 75 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#92) | -8.8 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#98) | -1.94 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#122) | -3.35 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#125) | 0.399 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 10.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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