Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +9 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -6.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -6.2 (-2.8) | 143.9 (+15.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -4.6 (-4.4) | 145.3 (+13.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -5.5 (-3.5) | 144.7 (+14.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -5.8 (-3.2) | 145.8 (+13.2) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2021 | MTSU 73 – 61 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#291) | 4.3 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#304) | 1.20 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#318) | 1.31 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#284) | 0.547 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 11.0% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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