Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +12 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -15.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+41.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -16.1 (-4.1) | 140.0 (+34.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -11.6 (+0.4) | 136.6 (+37.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -11.7 (+0.3) | 136.0 (+38.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -11.7 (+0.3) | 138.0 (+36.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 6-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 3-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | -5.8 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#75) | -1.54 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#93) | -1.55 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#85) | 0.411 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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