Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -12.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -10.9 (+3.1) | 136.1 (+5.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -8.1 (+5.9) | 133.6 (+8.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -7.9 (+6.1) | 134.6 (+7.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -8.5 (+5.5) | 135.8 (+6.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#230) | -8.7 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#206) | -1.09 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#217) | -1.69 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#276) | 0.370 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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