Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +22 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -4.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -4.9 (+17.1) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -5.1 (+16.9) | 145.0 (-9.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -4.4 (+17.6) | 145.8 (-9.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -4.9 (+17.1) | 147.9 (-11.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 5-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#232) | -1.6 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#232) | -1.40 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#245) | -2.70 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#198) | 0.413 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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