Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -1.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.7 (+3.3) | 135.6 (+4.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -2.7 (+1.3) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.5 (+2.5) | 144.5 (-4.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -1.5 (+2.5) | 138.3 (+1.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 18-0 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 60.6 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#67) | 14.1 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#32) | 1.07 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#56) | 1.58 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#26) | 0.434 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 49.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 28.5% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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