Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +31 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -23.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -19.7 (+11.3) | 151.7 (-10.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -17.2 (+13.8) | 152.6 (-11.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -19.3 (+11.7) | 152.2 (-11.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -22.4 (+8.6) | 152.8 (-11.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 3-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#53) | -9.3 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#12) | -0.81 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.97 (#13) | -1.47 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#52) | 0.412 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 44.2% | 23.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.7% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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