Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +19 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -9.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -6.1 (+12.9) | 136.2 (+10.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -9.2 (+9.8) | 137.7 (+9.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -5.9 (+13.1) | 139.4 (+7.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.9 (+13.1) | 136.8 (+10.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#191) | -4.3 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#267) | -0.07 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#268) | 0.18 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#311) | 0.542 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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