Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -14.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -11.5 (-1.5) | 142.9 (+11.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -11.9 (-1.9) | 141.9 (+12.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -12.0 (-2.0) | 141.6 (+12.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -11.9 (-1.9) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#143) | -6.7 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#210) | -3.38 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#183) | -5.42 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#235) | 0.340 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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