Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -16.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -12.1 (+4.9) | 142.9 (+10.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -14.0 (+3.0) | 147.2 (+5.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -13.0 (+4.0) | 146.5 (+6.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -12.4 (+4.6) | 144.2 (+8.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2020 | UCF 63 – 55 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#16) | 3.9 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#52) | 1.08 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#43) | 1.36 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#22) | 0.544 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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