Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +27 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LT -6.1 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -6.0 (+21.0) | 144.2 (+2.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -6.0 (+21.0) | 146.1 (+0.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -6.6 (+20.4) | 146.9 (+0.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -6.4 (+20.6) | 147.0 (+0.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#192) | -1.0 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#143) | -1.71 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#152) | -2.29 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#147) | 0.475 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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