Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +2 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -3.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -1.5 (+0.5) | 143.7 (+30.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -1.7 (+0.3) | 140.7 (+33.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -2.6 (-0.6) | 143.3 (+30.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -1.9 (+0.1) | 144.1 (+29.9) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | MRSH 68 – 57 AKR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#244) | -0.7 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#294) | 0.13 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#285) | 0.78 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#282) | 0.453 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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