Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | USA -275 USM +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +30 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USA -20.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -13.8 (+16.2) | 138.0 (+2.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -13.2 (+16.8) | 138.0 (+2.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -14.0 (+16.0) | 136.9 (+3.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -15.4 (+14.6) | 138.0 (+2.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#97) | -9.7 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#79) | -0.43 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#82) | -1.70 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#10) | 0.438 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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