Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -12.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.2 (-3.2) | 147.6 (+9.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -8.8 (-1.8) | 153.4 (+3.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -10.4 (-3.4) | 155.9 (+1.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -9.0 (-2.0) | 151.6 (+5.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#127) | -4.2 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#138) | -3.20 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#131) | -4.91 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#92) | 0.373 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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