Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -2.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -3.3 (-3.7) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -2.7 (-4.3) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -3.5 (-3.5) | 141.9 (+7.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -3.3 (-3.7) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MRST 83 – 38 IONA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IONA 75 – 71 MRST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MRST 70 – 65 IONA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IONA 71 – 64 MRST |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MRST 68 – 64 IONA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 7-6 | 13-0 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#240) | 5.7 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#264) | 1.54 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#280) | 2.27 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#316) | 0.619 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.4% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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